IMF副总裁张涛：需采取强有力的政策和合作来应对前所未有的挑战
博鳌亚洲论坛
北京时间2020年5月8日上午，博鳌亚洲论坛成功举办《亚洲经济展望与一体化进程2020报告》线上发布会暨“疫情下亚洲发展前景与挑战研讨会”。国际货币基金组织副总裁张涛到会并参与讨论。
他分析了疫情对全球经济、亚洲经济带来的不同程度的挑战及其原因，并对亚洲各国政府需要采取的政策做出了明确的建议。他强调了此次疫情冲击的严重性，同时呼吁“只有在卫生和经济两方面共同做出努力和进行合作，我们才能向前迈进”。
本次首发会和研讨会的语言为英文，在此分享双语版本的演讲实录，以飨读者。
图中第二行第一位为张涛
国际货币基金组织张涛副总裁
在博鳌亚洲论坛2020旗舰报告线上首发会
暨疫情下亚洲发展前景与挑战研讨会上的讲话
（全文）
（2020年5月8日）
女士们、先生们，非常高兴与大家一起参加博鳌亚洲论坛2020旗舰报告首发会暨疫情下亚洲发展前景与挑战研讨会。在此，我要感谢周小川副理事长、黄根成理事以及李保东秘书长，同时，我也要感谢博鳌论坛的组织者们及所有参与本次活动的嘉宾。
我受邀就全球及亚洲经济前景展望话题发表一些看法，我非常乐意。但开始之前，我要感谢所有奋战在抗击新冠肺炎一线的医生、护士和急救人员，在全世界抗击冠状病毒大流行之际，他们依旧正在努力保护着我们的安全，我们对于他们所做的牺牲亏欠一份真正的感谢。
让我们回到全球发展前景展望的主题。
冠状病毒正在世界范围内肆虐，大大抬升了全球的人力成本。挽救生命需要封锁及大面积的关闭活动以减缓病毒传播。这次健康危机和隔离封锁也对经济产生了严重的影响。我们最新的预测显示，受疫情影响，2020年全球经济将大幅萎缩3%。
从发达经济体来看，预计2020年整体经济增长-6.1%。大多数发达经济体今年的经济增速将下降，包括美国（-5.9%）、日本（-5.2%）、英国（-6.5%）和德国（-7.0%）。
新兴市场和发展中经济体也面临一系列挑战，包括卫生危机、严重的外部需求冲击、全球金融环境急剧收紧和商品价格暴跌等。总的来说，这些经济体在2020年预计将萎缩1.1%。如果将中国排除在计算范围之外，预计新兴市场经济体的增长率将会更差，为-2.2%。
让我们看看亚洲。
冠状病毒对于亚洲地区的影响将是严重、全面和前所未有的。事实上，我们预测2020年亚洲经济增长将停滞不前。这将比全球金融危机时经济增长放缓至4.7%要糟糕，甚至要比亚洲金融危机时增长低至1.3%还糟糕。事实上，过去60年里，亚洲从未经历过零增长。
为什么亚洲面临着前所未有的放缓？
首先，与全球金融危机不同的是，亚洲的实体产业——尤其是服务业会受到重创。第二，与亚洲金融危机不同的是，亚洲以外区域的外部需求放缓更为严重。第三，正如现在高度发达的供应链所证明的，贸易一体化程度日益提高，意味着任何一个国家的生产放缓都会迅速而广泛地传递到世界其他地区，尤其是在亚洲。因此，虽然一些亚洲国家在上一次危机中受到了很大冲击，但今天经济低迷的波及范围要广泛得多。
更重要的是，这种前所未见的前景将受到前所未见的不确定性因素影响。这意味着，经济影响的程度取决于各种难以预测因素的相互作用，包括病毒流行的进程和相关遏制工作。但是，出现更坏结果的风险占了主导地位。
例如，如果出现了一波又一波的感染，就有可能需要持续的遏制措施。这些感染潮可能导致比目前所预测更久和更大幅度的经济下滑。又例如，对病毒传染蔓延的不确定性持续存在、信心未能改善、企业倒闭等，都将导致更加漫长的供应链中断和需求疲软。
当前的政策如何应对？
简而言之，由于经济冲击的严重性，需要制定全面的政策措施。在此，我想强调与亚洲经济体有重大关系的以下几点：
首先，政策制定者必须要确保向医疗卫生部门提供足够的支持和保护——以及采取减缓病毒传播的措施。
第二，政策制定者应以支持受影响最严重的家庭和企业为目标。这些政策要能够直接保护人员、就业和产业，而不是只通过金融机构。必须认真谨慎调整政策，以减少不平等现象。
第三，政策应当保持反应迅速、灵活。许多亚洲国家已经采取了积极主动的应对措施，减轻不利的经济影响，并为经济的重新开放和复苏作出了战略定位。面对疫情及亚洲经济的异质性所带来的巨大不确定性，政策也需要灵活和具有适应性，最有效地实现目标。
此外，各国还应寻求并利用双边和多边互换额度，以及多边机构提供的资金支持来应对外部压力。资本流动措施也可以发挥作用，确保对外部门的稳定。
最后但同样重要的是，需要通过强有力的全球和区域合作来支持各国的努力。病毒不分国界，这场危机有别于其它危机。任何国家都不可能单靠自己的力量取得成功。只有在卫生和经济两方面共同做出努力和进行合作，我们才能向前迈进，帮助全球和亚洲经济重回正轨。
我非常期待今天会议上的精彩讨论，预祝博鳌亚洲论坛首场线上旗舰报告发布会和研讨会圆满成功。
谢谢大家！
Keynote Speech by IMF Deputy Managing Director
Dr． Zhang Tao at the Launch of the BFA 2020
Flagship Report & Symposium on Asian Development Prospects
and Challenges under the Pandemic
（Full Text）
（May 8， 2020）
Ladies and gentlemen， it is a real pleasure for me to join you today for the online launch of the Boao Forum’s inaugural flagship report and the symposium on “Asian Development Prospects and Challenges Under the Pandemic．” I would like to thank Vice Chairman Mr． Zhou Xiaochuan， Director and Former Deputy Prime Minister Mr． Wong Kan Seng and Secretary General Mr． Li Baodong， and all the organizers at the Boao Forum， as well as all of you who are participating virtually in this important event．
I was asked to make some remarks on the global and Asian economic outlook， and I am glad to do so． But before I begin， I would like first to acknowledge and thank all the frontline workers—doctors， nurses， and first responders—who are working so hard to keep us safe as the world continues to fight the COVID-19 pandemic． We owe them a true debt of gratitude for the sacrifices they are making．
Let me move to the global outlook．
The pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide． Protecting lives has required lockdowns and widespread closures of activities to slow the spread of the virus． The health crisis and the associated lockdowns are also having a severe impact on economic activity． As a result of the pandemic， our latest projections show the global economy contracting sharply by 3 percent in 2020．
Looking at advanced economies， economic growth as a whole is projected to be -6.1 percent in 2020． Most advanced economies are forecast to contract this year， including the United States （-5.9 percent）， Japan （-5.2 percent）， the United Kingdom （-6.5 percent）， and Germany （-7.0 percent）．
Emerging market and developing economies also face a range of challenges， including the health crisis， a severe external demand shock， a dramatic tightening in global financial conditions， and plunging commodity prices． Overall， these economies are projected to contract by 1.1 percent in 2020． If China is excluded from the calculation， the growth rate for the group of EMDEs is expected to be even worse， at -2.2 percent．
Let me turn to Asia．
The impact of the coronavirus on the region will be severe， across the board， and unprecedented． Indeed， we are forecasting that Asia’s economic growth will come to a standstill in 2020． This is worse than the Global Financial Crisis， when growth slowed to 4.7 percent． It is even worse than the Asian Financial Crisis， when growth slowed to 1.3 percent． In fact， Asia has not experienced zero growth in the last 60 years．
Why is the region facing such an unprecedented slowdown？
Well， first of all， unlike the global financial crisis， Asia’s real sector—and especially the service sector—is being hit hard． Second， unlike the Asian financial crisis， the slowdown of external demand outside Asia is much more severe． Third， increasing trade integration， as evidenced by today’s highly developed supply chains， means that production slowdowns in any one country transmit rapidly and widely to other parts of the world， and particularly within Asia． And as a result， while some Asian countries were hit very hard during the previous crisis， the downturn today is much more widespread．
And more importantly， this unprecedented outlook is subject to an unprecedented amount of uncertainty． This means that the extent of the economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict， including the course of the pandemic and the containment efforts． But risks of a worse outcome predominate．
For example， there is a risk that continued containment efforts may be needed if there are waves of infections． These waves could lead to a longer and sharper downturn than the current forecast．
Other examples include lingering uncertainty about contagion， confidence failing to improve， and business closures， leading to longer-lasting supply-chain disruptions and weakness in demand．
Now， what about the policy response？
In short， a full arsenal of policies is needed， given the severity of the economic shock． Here， I would like to highlight the following points that are relevant for Asia’s economies．
First， policymakers must ensure adequate support and protection in the healthcare sector— as well as for measures that slow contagion．
Second， policymakers should aim to target support for the hardest-hit households and firms． These policies need to protect people， jobs， and industries directly， not just through financial institutions． Policies must be carefully calibrated to reduce inequality．
Third， policies should remain responsive and nimble． Many countries in Asia have already responded proactively by mitigating the adverse economic impact and by positioning themselves strategically for economic reopening and recovering． Faced with tremendous uncertainties related to the pandemic and the heterogeneity of Asian economies， policies also need to be nimble and adaptive to achieve their objectives most effectively．
In addition， countries should also seek and utilize bilateral and multilateral swap lines and financial support from multilateral institutions in response to external pressures，． There can also be a role for capital flow measures to secure external sector stability．
Last but not least， strong global and regional cooperation is needed to complement national efforts． The virus does not respect borders， and this crisis is like no other． No country can succeed by itself． Only by working together and cooperating on both the health and economic fronts， will we be able to move forward and help the global and Asian economies get back on track．
With these remarks， I greatly look forward to our discussion today， and wish great success to the Boao Forum in its launch of the inaugural flagship report and the symposium．
Thank you！
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